College Football Playoff Outlook: Conference Championship Preview: Computer Probabilities

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College Football Playoff Outlook: Conference Championship Preview

With conference championship weekend kicking off tonight with the Pac 12 Championship and continuing Saturday with Big Ten, SEC and ACC tilts, we take a look at the playoff chances for eight teams eyeing a berth in the Final Four:

Final Four Predictions:

Georgia defeats Alabama(and is in) or loses a close one. Either way, Georgia is in. If Georgia falls in a blow out…. then everything is up in the air.

Michigan handily defeats Iowa and is in. A narrow loss by Michigan and they are in as long as Alabama doesn’t thump Georgia. Iowa blowing out Michigan means the Wolverines are out.

The winner of Washington and Oregon is in. If Oregon wins in a close game, but Washington plays well has a slim chance of getting in if all of the following occur: losses by Florida State, Michigan, and Alabama.

Florida State  is in with a win IF they look dominating. If they barely win, and Alabama defeats Georgia and Texas destroys Oklahoma State, the Seminoles are out.

Ohio State is in if Florida State, Oregon and Alabama lose AND Michigan thumps Iowa.

Texas is in only if Alabama thumps Georgia(by at least 14 points) AND Michigan, Oregon and Fliorida State lose.

Alabama is in with a thumping of Georgia, AND at losses from at least two of the following: Florida State, Michigan(if Iowa thumps Michigan only) and Oregon.

Rank Playoff Chances Team Record
1 91% Georgia 12-0
2 85% Michigan 12-0
3 61% Washington 12-0
4 83% Florida State 12-0
5 42% Oregon 11-1
6 13% Ohio State 11-1
7 9% Texas 11-1
8 7% Alabama 11-1

 

 OnFocus Final Four Prediction:

Georgia

Michigan

Oregon

Florida State

 

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David Keech
Author: David Keech

David Keech is a retired teacher and works as a sportswriter, sports official and as an educational consultant. He has reported on amateur sports since 2011, known as 'KeechDaVoice.' David can be reached at [email protected]